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OPEC expects demand for its crude will fall to the lowest in three decades as the coronavirus outbreak freezes the global economy, underscoring the urgency of its promised production cuts.

Just under 20 million barrels a day will be needed on average from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in the second quarter, according to a monthly report from the group. It hasn’t pumped this little crude since early 1989.

OPEC and its allies agreed massive production cuts amounting to 10% of global supplies over the weekend, as governments extend lockdowns to contain the pandemic, emptying out roads, drastically reducing flights, and bringing many economic activities to a halt.

The report released Thursday from the cartel’s secretariat in Vienna illustrates why they’ll need to deliver the pledged reductions in full.

Even if OPEC members fully implement their share of the agreed cutbacks -- a fragile assumption, given that many tend to cheat -- they’d still be producing more than the market requires in the second quarter.

With perfect compliance, the 13 nations would be pumping about 23.4 million barrels a day, or roughly 3.7 million more than the “call on OPEC.”

Things could be even tougher for the organization than it’s forecasting.

While the group slashed forecasts for global oil demand this year, their estimates are still considerably more optimistic than those of the International Energy Agency, the institution that advises consuming nations.

OPEC sees world oil demand contracting by 6.8 million barrels a day in 2020, while the Paris-based IEA on Wednesday projected a slump of just over 9 million barrels a day.

Source:

https://www.rigzone.com/

http://www.jrj.com.cn/

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OPEC预计市场对其原油需求将降至30年来最低

石油输出国组织(OPEC)预计,由于新型冠状病毒肺炎带来全球经济寒冬,市场对该组织的原油需求将降至三十年来最低水平,这种情况使其兑现减产承诺显得更加紧迫。

OPEC月度报告显示,该组织第二季度的原油订单略低于每天2000万桶。降至1989年初以来OPEC产油量的最低水平。

由于各国政府持续扩大疫情防控封锁措施,造成出行车辆稀少、航班大量取消、多项经济活动停滞,上周末OPEC及其盟国决定大规模减产,减产幅度相当于全球供应量的10%

OPEC维也纳秘书处周四发布的报告中,解释了全额兑现减产承诺的必要性。

不过即使OPEC成员国全额兑现各自的减产配额(虽然这是个站不住脚的假设,因为许多成员国倾向于作弊),他们的产量仍将超过第二季度的市场需求。

如果OPEC足额兑现减产,13个成员国每天总产量将为大约2340万桶,仍比市场需求高出约370万桶。

对于OPEC而言,情况可能比预想的还要艰难。

尽管OPEC预测今年全球石油需求将会下降,但他们预测的减产量仍比国际能源署(IEA)更为乐观。

OPEC预测2020年全球石油需求量每天将减少680万桶,而国际能源署则在本周三预计,石油日需求量降幅将略高于900万桶。

信息来源:

https://www.rigzone.com/

http://www.jrj.com.cn/

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