Epec Global Information Service- Project Information-No. 7, 2020(中文版请见底部)


The German industry organization Fraunhofer Institute released the 2019 annual data on German power production, which shows that Germany's renewable energy power generation accounted for 46% of total power generation in 2019, an increase of 5.4 percentage points from 2018. This is the first time that Germany's renewable energy generation accounted for more than fossil energy.

Significant growth in renewable energy generation

Data from the Fraunhofer Institute show that in 2019, Germany's total power generation was 515.6 billion kWh. Among them, wind power generation reached 127.2 billion kWh, accounting for 24.67% of the total power generation; biomass power generation was 44.4 billion kWh, accounting for 8.5%; solar and hydropower generation were 46.5 billion and 19.2 billion kWh, respectively Reached 9% and 3.8%. The above-mentioned renewable energy power generation totaled approximately 237.4 billion kWh.

In contrast, the amount of fossil energy generation has fallen sharply. Fraunhofer Institute's statistics show that in 2019, Germany's coal-fired power generation will be 150.9 billion kWh, accounting for 29% of the country's total power generation, a 9% decrease from 2018. Among them, the net power generation of lignite was 102.2 billion kWh, a decrease of 22.3% compared to 2018; the net power generation of hard coal was 48.7 billion kWh, a decrease of 23.7 billion kWhover 2018, a decrease of 32.8%. With over 54.1 billion kWh of gas-fired power generation and a small amount of fuel oil and waste incineration power generation, the net power generation of German fossil fuels in 2019 is about 207 billion kWh, which is lower than that of renewable energy for the first time.

Great pressure on transformation

According to the "energy transition" plan proposed by the German federal government, by 2030, the proportion of renewable energy generation in Germany needs to reach 65%, and carbon emissions need to be reduced by 55% compared to 1990.

Although the proportion of renewable energy generation in Germany has further increased in 2019, and carbon emissions are also in the downward space, Patrick Greichen, head of the "Agora Energy Transformation" think tank and power market analyst, said that the current momentum of the expansion of wind power in Germany has slowed down significantly, and plans to completely withdraw from the development and utilization of nuclear power around 2022. Therefore, Germany's energy transition in the next 10 years will still face tremendous pressure.

In the nuclear power sector, Germany's "exit" steps are obvious. On December 31, 2019, the German power company EnBW announced that the Philippsburg 2 reactor, which has been operating continuously for 35 years, was officially offline. At this point, there are only six nuclear reactors in operation across Germany, and they are scheduled to shut down by 2022.

According to statistics from the Fraunhofer Institute, in 2019, Germany's nuclear power generation capacity was 71.1 billion kWh, accounting for 13.8% of the total power generation.

On the other hand, with the new German Renewable Energy Law officially implemented in 2017, the subsidy amount for wind power on-grid tariffs was changed from the initial unified formulation to the Federal Grid Agency's bidding determination, that is, different projects quoted their own prices, according to the winning bid price Confirm the amount of subsidies.

Changes in subsidy methods have led to a significant decline in German wind power, especially onshore wind power development. In the first half of 2019, Germany's new wind power installed capacity was only 290 MW, a sharp decline of about 80% year-on-year, reaching its lowest point in nearly 20 years. The relevant person in charge of the German Federal Wind Power Association, Erbes, revealed in an interview with the media that in 2019, the Federal Grid Agency conducted five biddingfor a total of 3,175 MW of wind power, but only 1,337 MW of the project was finalized.

Regarding whether the speed of renewable energy development can fill the power gap caused by the nuclear power exit, German Economy and Energy Minister Peter Altmaier publicly stated in early 2019 that Germany may still need to retain some coal-fired generating units until 2030 to offset the nuclear power decrease.

Source: International Energy Network


德国可再生能源发电占比首超化石能源


日前,德国行业组织Fraunhofer研究所发布的2019年德国电力生产年度数据显示,2019年德国可再生能源发电量占总发电量的46%,比2018年提高5.4个百分点。这是德国的可再生能源发电占比首次超过化石能源。

可再生能源发电量显著增长

Fraunhofer研究所的数据显示,2019年全年,德国发电总量为5156亿千瓦时。其中,风力发电量达到1272亿千瓦时,占发电总量的24.67%;生物质发电为444亿千瓦时,占比8.5%;太阳能和水力发电量分别为465亿和192亿千瓦时,占比分别达到9%和3.8%。上述可再生能源发电量合计达到约2374亿千瓦时。

与此形成鲜明对比的是,化石能源发电量出现大幅下滑。Fraunhofer研究所统计结果表明,2019年,德国燃煤发电量为1509 亿千瓦时,占全国发电总量的29%,比2018年下降9个百分点。其中,褐煤净发电量为1022 亿千瓦时,比2018年下降了22.3%;硬煤净发电量为487亿千瓦时,比2018年减少了237亿千瓦时,降幅达32.8%。叠加541亿千万时的燃气发电和少量燃油及垃圾焚烧发电,2019年德国化石燃料的净发电量约为2070亿千瓦时,首次低于可再生能源发电量。

转型仍存巨大压力

按照德国联邦政府提出的“能源转型”计划,到2030年,德国可再生能源发电比例需达到65%,碳排放量较1990年需减少55%。

虽然2019年德国可再生能源发电占比进一步提升,碳排放量也处于下行空间,但“Agora能源转型”智库负责人、电力市场分析师帕特里克·格赖兴表示,当前,德国风电的扩张势头已大幅减缓,并计划在2022年前后彻底退出核电的开发利用,因此,德国未来10年的能源转型依然面临巨大压力。

在核电领域,德国的“退出”脚步显而易见。2019年12月31日,德国电力公司EnBW宣布,已经连续运转35年的Philippsburg 2号反应堆正式下线。至此,德国全境仅剩6座在运核反应堆,并计划在2022年全部关停。

根据Fraunhofer研究所的统计数据,2019年,德国核电发电量为711亿千瓦时,占总发电量的13.8%。

另一方面,随着德国新版《可再生能源法》于2017年正式施行,风电上网电价的补贴额度从最初的统一制定改为由联邦电网署组织竞标确定,即不同项目各自报价,根据中标电价确认补贴额度。

补贴方式的改变,使德国风电特别是陆上风电开发出现大幅下跌。2019年上半年,德国新增风电装机仅290兆瓦,同比大幅下滑约 80%,达到近20年来的最低点。德国联邦风电协会相关负责人埃尔贝斯在接受媒体采访时曾透露,2019年,联邦电网署对风电进行了五次共计3175兆瓦的招标,但仅有1337兆瓦项目最终成交。

对于可再生能源的发展速度能否填补核电退出带来的电量缺口,德国经济和能源部长Peter Altmaier曾在2019年初公开表示,德国可能仍需保留部分燃煤发电机组,直至2030年才能抵消核电退出带来的影响。

来源:国际能源网


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